Sunday, April 30, 2006

ANALYSIS: The Man Who Would Traverse The Globe

Analysis by the D & T Editorial Board

Geraint Llewelyn hopes his foreign trips will assist his party's flagging fortunes. He plans on visiting numerous fellow IDU nations in under a month. On the list are Ceorana, the Schnauzerlands, Jonquiere-Tadoussac, Baranxtu and others.

It will doubtless prove a wonderful opportunity for the PM to show he's a leader who can govern effectively on the world stage. There will be photo-ops aplenty and press conferences where the other Heads of Government and State of the Region will praise him (and he them). And it will be widely seen by the press and analysts alike as being largely positive for the Holy and Serene Republic (and also positive for Geraint Llewelyn personally; a point not lost on the PM).

But if the Prime Minister thinks it will be a smooth ride as he makes his circuit of the IDU, he has another think coming. There are a number of areas with which his fellow heads of government are likely to take issue. Consider the range of social spending packages in which other governments invest and in which ours does not. Our welfare spending is among the lowest four in the Region. Our healthcare is unregulated and cited for wide disparities. Income inequality is amongst the worst. Our environment has been routinely gutted in favour of expanding economic liberalisation. The PM will likely find that explaining away these policy results to be quite uncomfortable.

And yet after saying all this, it may be religion that proves his undoing. Recently the International Democratic Union took a decision to make secularism a fundamental value of the Region. At the time the Foreign Office made a short statement to the effect that "Lloegr-Cymru's laws are in complete compliance with the fundamental values of the region." But this is not likely to be a point on which all agree. The bishops of the Catholic Church hold seats in the Upper House. And while they cannot block anything that was a manifesto pledge, their continued presence will be hard to justify. Indeed, Archbishop Rhys ap Llew even has a Cabinet-level post. Again, his position has little policy-making power, but he does enjoy a position of exclusivity and influence no other prelate of any other religion enjoys.

The Opposition already senses blood on this issue. The Christian Democrats' Shadow Spirituality Minister told the Bore da programme yesterday that "the Government will be only to keen to bow to IDU pressure. They'll remove the Church wholesale from our time-honoured and treasured institutions." It will likely prove nettlesome at either or both of the Prime Minister's Question Times on Tuesday and Thursday. The Opposition will be likely to press him strongly on what they perceive to be his most vulnerable weakness.

It would therefore be wise of the Prime Minister not to assume that boosts in the polls will necessarily follow these trips. Indeed, he may be exposing himself to more challenges than he realises.